The United Nations (U.N.) is preparing for significant shifts in U.S. support and potential funding cuts as Donald Trump’s possible return to power looms. The organization, which relies heavily on U.S. contributions, anticipates a repeat of challenges it faced during Trump's previous term, including budget reductions and policy changes that impacted U.N. operations. A senior Asian diplomat expressed a sense of "déjà vu and trepidation" as Trump’s recent election win over Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris reignited these concerns. The diplomat noted a cautious optimism, however, hoping that even a transactional Trump administration might still support some U.N. initiatives despite its inclination to defund certain areas, especially given the U.N.’s global influence.

Trump’s stance on foreign policy in his anticipated second term remains somewhat vague, but his “peace through strength” philosophy is expected to shape his interactions with international leaders. He has vowed to resolve the conflict in Ukraine and likely plans to offer staunch support to Israel in its ongoing disputes with groups like Hamas and Hezbollah in Gaza and Lebanon. Trump’s direct and assertive style may signal a more unilateral approach, raising questions about whether the U.S. will continue to be a major player in the multilateral diplomacy the U.N. promotes or if his policies will leave room for increased influence from countries like China.

One of the U.N.’s primary concerns is whether the United States will significantly cut its financial contributions or withdraw from key global agreements, such as the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Paris Climate Agreement. The U.S. is the U.N.'s largest contributor, funding 22% of the core budget and nearly 27% of the peacekeeping budget, with China being the next largest. In the event that U.S. commitments diminish, it could upset U.N. activities, particularly in peacekeeping, which depends vigorously on these assets. Albeit a nation can gather back payments for as long as two years prior to losing its Overall Gathering vote, delayed keeping of U.S. commitments could endanger different projects, bringing about functional disturbances.

Trump's past term likewise saw him upholding for steep cuts in U.S. discretion and unfamiliar guide spending plans, affecting U.N. peacekeeping and other worldwide associations. However the U.S. Congress opposed a portion of these recommendations, restricting their effect, a second Trump organization could present comparative monetary proposition. Richard Gowan, U.N. chief at the Global Emergency Gathering, expressed that U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres and his group have arranged for a potential Trump return, recognizing that while they are not completely ill-equipped, the approaching period could introduce imposing difficulties.

During his underlying term, Trump regularly scrutinized the U.N., declaring that the U.S. was bearing an unjustifiable portion of the expenses and pushing for changes to decrease these commitments. The U.S. was often behind in payments, and when Trump left office in 2021, the country was overdue by $600 million for the core budget and $2 billion for peacekeeping. President Joe Biden later addressed part of this debt, though the U.S. currently still owes significant amounts to the U.N. Guterres’ spokesperson, Stephane Dujarric, recently affirmed that the U.N. intends to work with the U.S., as with all member states, regardless of policy shifts.

Another major upcoming decision that could be affected by U.S. leadership is the selection of Guterres' successor in 2026, a process in which a Trump administration could wield considerable influence through its veto power in the Security Council. In the event that Trump takes on a fierce methodology, it could bring about a change in the U.N's. initiative bearing, with suggestions for the association's position on worldwide issues.

The arrival of a Trump administration could likewise have repercussions for China's job at the U.N. also, its more extensive global impact. During Trump's past term, his reactions of multilateralism and moves toward distance the U.S. from peaceful accords, for example, the WHO and UNESCO, gave an opening to China to reinforce its situation in worldwide strategy. A senior European diplomat described a potential Trump victory as “great news for China,” pointing to the increased influence China achieved during Trump’s first term. Another senior negotiator demonstrated that further U.S. withdrawals from multilateral drives would just improve China's remaining as an advertiser of multilateralism, further setting its impact inside the U.N.

Explicit U.N. offices, like the U.N. Populace Asset (UNFPA), are especially worried about the expected withdrawal of U.S. support under Trump. In 2017, Trump's organization slice financing to UNFPA, asserting that it upheld forced fetus removals and compulsory disinfection, an allegation the U.N. fervently denied. Biden's organization reestablished financing, permitting UNFPA to proceed with its work in maternal and kid wellbeing, family arranging, and different regions in north of 150 nations. On the off chance that Trump again diminishes support for UNFPA, it could imperil administrations for ladies in basic emergency zones like Afghanistan, Sudan, and Ukraine, as the organization has cautioned.

Trump’s first administration also resisted language supporting women’s sexual and reproductive rights in U.N. resolutions, arguing that such language promoted abortion rights. This resistance could re-emerge in his second term, potentially impacting international agreements on women’s health and reproductive rights. An African diplomat expressed concern over Trump’s likely impact on multilateralism, suggesting that his leadership could be a severe setback for international cooperation within the U.N.

As the U.N. braces for a possible second Trump administration, member states are preparing for potential challenges. For some, a U.S. retreat might signify an opportunity to expand their influence on the global stage. However, others worry about the ramifications of reduced U.S. funding and engagement, especially for countries dependent on U.N.-led initiatives. While Guterres and his team have planned for these potential challenges, the organization’s future stability and effectiveness may hinge on the policies Trump adopts if he returns to the White House.