The potential for direct military action between Iranian and US forces is low, despite the shockwaves reverberating around the Middle East following the killing of Qassem Soleimani, according to one analyst.
“Despite the incident, the risk of direct military confrontation is still remote. The threats to both Iran and the United States, and their respective allies, would be great, and this would not serve any publicly stated goals of the Trump administration,” said Niamh McBurney, from the risk analysis company Verisk Maplecroft.
She added: “The most likely response from Iran will come through its proxies and affiliated groups in Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. US political, military and business interests are now at stake in Iraq and Lebanon, and military personnel in the Persian Gulf are also vulnerable.”